MTW Discussion

Another disturbance moved through yesterday bringing showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Hill Country and South-Central Texas. Unfortunately, Austin and San Antonio missed out almost completely. However, some surrounding communities did receive generous rainfall totals. Temperatures yesterday also returned to the triple digits across areas like San Antonio, Austin, and Del Rio. The San Antonio International Airport tied the record high for the date of 101º set back in 2000. This was the 26th time this year San Antonio has topped the century mark. The most 100º days in a year occurred in 1998 with 36 days. Considering the climatologically hottest part of the year is still ahead, the 1998 record is in jeopardy as only 8 days remain. Not to be out done, however, Del Rio reached a steamy high of 105º, breaking the old record of 104º.

Chances for additional showers and thunderstorms will progressively decline throughout the next 24 to 48 hours as the weather pattern evolves. The past few days, the setup was a steady northerly flow aloft in the upper levels of the atmosphere as a result of an unseasonably deep trough positioned east of the Mississippi. Models continue to “flatten” the trough, which would then in turn reduce the flow aloft thus limiting the propagation of these disturbances southward into our region. This means that dry and hot weather return to South-Central Texas throughout the next several days.

The good news, however, is that the upper level ridge that plagued the region with record heat shows no indication of redeveloping, at least in the short-term. Instead, we remain in a relatively stagnant pattern with weak to nonexistent upper level dynamics. Thus, there is at least the outside chance for a shower or thunderstorm on any given day with peak daytime heating along the daily sea breeze boundary.

In the longer range extending next week, computer models show a resurgence of the Eastern US trough. This solution is certainly plausible as this pattern has dominated most of the summer. That would, again, bring back the same general setup that we experience now; looking to the north for isolated rounds of showers and thunderstorms to reach South-Central Texas with some reaching severe limits.

The Edwards Aquifer is back on the way down, however this trend should eventually reverse as it did rain over the recharge zone yesterday. Hopefully more rain develops this afternoon. The Stage 3 Water Restrictions Trigger at the J-17 Well in Bexar County is 640 feet above mean sea level. We will continue to monitor the latest levels. Stay tuned for further developments.