MTW Discussion

The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season does not begin for another few days, but there is plenty to watch in the Gulf of Mexico right now. Just east of New Orleans there is a very well organized tropical disturbance packing tropical storm force winds to the northern Gulf coast. The National Hurricane Center rates the probabilities of tropical cyclone formation as high. The mitigating factor inhibiting development prior to landfall is the proximity to land. As of 1:30AM CDT, the center of circulation is approximately 50 miles from land. With the storm moving essentially due north, it may not have enough time over water to fully develop a closed circulation and reach Tropical Storm status. However, if the circulation does close, I suspect the National Hurricane Center will name the storm Ana immediately as maximum sustained winds are well over Tropical Storm force.

Should “Ana” be declared, MyTexasWeather will keep you updated. Check out our Tropics page for the latest information.  I don’t think that this storm will have much of an effect here on South-Central Texas as the upper level jet should push most of the energy out east.

Meanwhile back out here, we are tracking a weakening ridge and numerous storms that develop with the help of daytime heating.   The capping inversion I briefly discussed last time eroded much quicker than anticipated, which is why many of you reported rain yesterday and why we say so much lightning overnight.  The same general setup should persist through the weekend with scattered hit and miss thunderstorms.  I do think these storms will be slightly more numerous this weekend than they were Friday.  Due to the lack of upper level winds, these storms will move very slowly if at all.  However, the good news is that the lack of sufficient wind shear will prevent these storms from reaching severe limits. But, I would not be surprised if a couple of these storms get strong enough to drop small hail here and there.

By Monday and Tuesday the winds will shift to the South and Southwest.  This will help reduce the humidity but also increase the temperatures drastically. You may want to limit the amount of heat you add to the barbecues on Memorial Day as the outdoor air temperature should suffice.  Highs on Monday should hover in the mid 90s under partly cloudy skies.  Tuesday, however, may top out near 100 degrees.

Beyond Tuesday, a series of shortwave troughs will move through the region allowing for storms to develop on a nearly daily basis beginning Wednesday.  As the event(s) near, I will be able to get more specific on what to expect out of these storms.  However at this time, a severe weather outbreak is not anticipated.

Stay tuned.