MTW Discussion

Hot and dry weather continues to plague South-Central Texas as a powerful subtropical ridge tightens its grip across the Central US.  Expect high temperatures to hover at or above 100 throughout the next several days with limited to no chance for rain.  The exception would be Saturday through Tuesday when the ridge’s influence slightly weakens allowing for isolated sea breeze showers to develop generally south and east of San Antonio.

There are also two tropical systems we are monitoring: One located to southeast; the other is Hurricane Andres in the Pacific.   Neither system will affect our forecast.

The aquifer level is still dropping at a fast rate.  Stage 3 water restrictions will be possible by next week.

First, let’s begin with some good news.  For the first time in quite a few days, the San Antonio International Airport stopped short of reaching the century-mark for the high.  Instead, our high was a balmy and lovely winter-like (well maybe only in South Texas) 99ºF.

Now back to reality:  this streak of hot and dry weather does not look like it is going to end anytime in the foreseeable future.  The culprit?  A powerful and incredibly stubborn ridge of high pressure that will not go away.  Storm systems keep riding around the high to our north and to our south.  But, unfortunately for our friends up north, many of the systems are providing plenty of severe weather.  Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes have been occuring nearly daily in the upper midwest, and today will not be an exception.  More storms are expected to fire up in the upper midwest and head towards the Ohio Valley. However, again for us, we will remain hot and dry.  Did I say that already?

The problem is… we need rain BADLY.  The Edwards Aquifer is dropping at a rapid rate.  Here is information regarding the Aquifer elevation at the J-17 Well here in Bexar County obtained from the Edwards Aquifer Authority since Saturday when we entered Stage 2 Water Restrictions Criteria:

June 13 - 649.6′
June 14 - 648.2′
June 15 - 648.7′
June 16 - 647.2′
June 17 - 646.0

and right now at 4:00 AM, the aquifer stands at 644.91′ where it’s been sitting since 1:45 AM.

The trigger for Stage 3 Water Restrictions is 640 feet above sea level.  At this rate, we’ll be there in a matter of a few days.  The water rules then are much stricter, and you can find out more about them at the SAWS webpage linked on MyTexasWeather.com.  The biggest change once Stage 3 is implemented will be the fact that you can only water with a sprinkler once every other week, instead of weekly.

It is imperative that we as a community conserve our water, it’s a precious resource.  And in droughts like these, you cannot save enough.

Looking in the long-range, I’m not overly optimistic, but I am seeing some possible changes.  One of the models wants to push the ridge further north, which will help bring us in the path of the easterly trade winds.  Under such scenarios, any disturbance in the Gulf will be pushed up in our direction bringing us nice and healthy tropical downpours.  Right now the model indicates any such chance for storms around the first week of July… which is still quite a ways away.   But, at this rate, mentioning anything is a good thing and something we can keep our fingers crossed to see verify.

Other than that, keep cool and conserve as much water as possible to slow the drop of the aquifer.

Expect more of the same weather to continue throughout the next several days across South-Central Texas. We remain under the influence of an extremely powerful subtropical ridge of high pressure. This will suppress any chances for relief in the form of rain or cooler temperatures. A persistent south/southeasterly wind at the surface will usher in enough moisture to keep humidity levels up, yielding nasty heat index values of near 110º throughout most of the week. There are no signs of this mid-late summer pattern to break down any time in the foreseeable future.

Unfortunately the Aquifer continues to be taking continuous hits from this latest dry and hot spell.  Yesterday’s reading was 647.2 ft at the J-17 well in Bexar County.  Today is shaping up to hang around 645 or 646 based on latest trends I’ve been monitoring all night.  The trigger for rigorous Stage 3 watering restrictions is at 640 ft.  We may approach that critical level by next week if the trend holds.  CONSERVE WATER!

Our 8-day forecast is calling for 100º+ temperatures everyday.  Exercise caution when performing outdoor activities and avoid strenuous workouts during peak heating hours. Also remember to keep hydrated at all times.