MTW Discussion

After a record-breaking high of 99� in San Antonio Thursday, we will enjoy a cooler afternoon today. Expect highs to stay in the low-to-mid 80s across South-Central Texas as a cold front heads south around the Rio Grande Valley. Tomorow, the front will retreat northward passing though here as a warm front bringing in a warm, humid, tropical air mass into the region.

We’re setting up for a nasty outbreak for severe thunderstorms across South-Central Texas Easter weekend. A powerful upper level low that will be moving in from California will bring in the proper dynamics, instability, and moisture to generate widespread severe thunderstorms beginning as early as Saturday afternoon across West-Central Texas shifting eastward into the rest of the state overnight Saturday and all day Easter Sunday.

Expect storms to fire up across West-Central Texas first on Saturday Afternoon in the form of scattered supercells. The main threat on Saturday will be large hail, and isolated reports of damaging winds. I really do not expect a high tornado threat, though one or two cannot be ruled out. These storms will continually progress eastward throughout the evening and overnight hours as they organize and form a Mesocale Convective Complex (MCS), or squall line. The main threats out of any MCS that forms will be damaging winds, hail, an isolated brief tornado, and much needed heavy rain.

As we head into Sunday morning and afternoon, more storms should fire up in the incredibly unstable airmass we have in South-Central Texas. During this period will be our greatest risk for severe storms in the San Antonio-Austin metropolitan areas with the main threats being very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. It is possible for a secondary line of storms to form along the dryline that will pass through later in the afternoon on Easter ending our threat for severe weather.

Later on in the evening on Sunday, we are expecting more supercell thunderstorms to develop across North and East Texas. The largest limiting factor will be instability, but if we have enough, then the scope of the outbreak will be huge with long-lived tornadic supercells before a final line moves through.

We will bring you the latest updates on MyTexasWeather via the forum, Twitter, front page, and Justin.tv. Stay tuned!