MTW Discussion

After a relatively warm week last week, clouds and cooler temperatures prevailed on Saturday across South-Central Texas.  High temperatures were reached in the early morning hours, with afternoon temperatures remaining only in the 50s.  The San Antonio International Airport reported an afternoon maximum of 56 degrees. Expect a continuation of cool and overcast conditions on Sunday with highs struggling to reach 60 across many locations in the region.  During the afternoon winds will shift from the southeast allowing for more moisture to enter from the Gulf of Mexico.

Monday through Thursday will also remain generally overcast.  An upper level low positioned over Baja California will allow for Pacific Moisture to filter through generating a near classic overrunning situation.  Expect overcast and cool conditions, with isolated pockets of light rain possible. However, given the ongoing drought and generally stable atmosphere, any precipitation will remain light.  None of these showers will even place a dent in the current drought situation. High temperatures will remain in the low 60s with morning lows bottoming out in the 40s and 50s.

Computer models project the next cold front will arrive late Thursday or early Friday clearing out any moisture. Winds will increase combined with lower relative humidity, potentially increasing the risk of wild fires  A freeze looks possible Saturday morning due to radiational cooling.  Models still indicate a generic Pacific overrunning pattern returning to the region by February 1st.

Long range forecasts beyond Sunday, February 1st do not show any chances for significant rainfall.

The blog is back, along with the rest of MyTexasWeather despite a couple days of inactivity.  We apologize for the inconvenience as this is a new and growing website.  In the future, we’ll do our best to keep the page continually updated with the latest weather information across South-Central Texas and abroad.

San Antonio enjoyed an impeccable afternoon after a chilly start with a morning low of 35 degrees. The high at the airport this afternoon reached 79 under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Friday morning will be much warmer as moisture works into the region, with patchy fog possible.  Lows will generally remain in the mid to upper 50s region-wide.

The big story for the day is the ongoing wildfire in North Texas just outside of Abilene.  A large 3000-acre grass fire in Jones County is still only 20 to 40 percent contained prompting several evacuations and destroying at least 7 homes and several other structures. Dry and breezy conditions continue to hamper firefighter efforts. For the Abilene area, Friday will be no more helpful with highs in the 80s with 20 mph winds.

Across South-Central Texas, more warmth will cover the area with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies.  A cold front will move through the region overnight bringing the possibility for morning fog on Saturday and cooler temperatures in the 60s.

An upper-level trough located off the coast of Baja California will help to usher in moisture aloft this weekend and through the middle of next week allowing for general cloud cover and isolated pockets of mist, drizzle, sprinkles, and light rain – with the best chances of precipitation on Monday and Tuesday. Expect highs next week to remain generally warm and steady in the lower 70s.  Low temperatures will remain quite tolerable in the mid to upper 50s.

More warm air will filter through late next week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.  The next cold front should move through by next Friday.

It was a rather raw, gloomy, and chilly end of the work-week across South-Central Texas.  Friday temperatures ranged from a low of 41 to a high of 49 at the San Antonio International Airport. Skies remained overcast and there were even patches of light mist and drizzle throughout the region.  Most of the moisture is from the Gulf of Mexico combined with weak isentropic lifting. Expect the cloudy, dreary weather to continue on the day Saturday, except with warmer temperatures approaching 60 instead of Friday’s 50. The best chances for any kind of precipitation will be south and west of San Antonio, however scattered drizzle is again possible.

By Sunday, another front will move through the area ushering dry air into the region.  This will clear out all the moisture and clouds from the region allowing for temperatures to heat up in the daytime and cool off significantly in the overnight hours.  On Monday, expect temperatures to flirt with 80s along the Balcones Escarpment with morning lows in the 40s.  Through the duration of next week, most of the region will endure constant sunshine with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s.

The next cold front looks to move through South-Central Texas on Friday.  At this time, it looks weak in nature and will remain dry.  Temperatures will drop into the upper 60s for highs and lows in the mid 40s.  There are no chances of rain in the immediate next 8-days, but long range models remain insistent on a shift in the overall weather pattern by the end of January that could be much more conducive to producing rainfall here.  Keep your fingers crossed!

Most people stepped out today and expected it to be COLD out there today, and those same people were pleasantly surprised with absolutely gorgeous temperatures across South-Central Texas this afternoon.  The San Antonio International Airport topped out at 66F Thursday afternoon despite the outer fringes of the Arctic airmass reaching into the region that has dropped temperatures below –40F in some portions of the Upper Midwest.  The “fly in the ointment” that most forecasters depended on was cloud cover that did not arrive until much later in the afternoon.  The added sunshine allowed temperatures to shoot up in some instances 17 degrees above forecasted highs.  (Not to brag… but we forecasted 60 and were the closest to the actual high in San Antonio! )

Temperatures tomorrow, however, are guaranteed to take a steep plunge as modified Arctic air settles into the region.  I say modified because the temperatures will be nowhere near that of our friends up north.  Instead, expect temperatures fight to top 50 degrees in San Antonio.  Winds will shift to the southeast in the overnight hours allowing for moisture from the Gulf of Mexico usher into the area leaving the door open for isolated drizzle and sprinkles across South-Central Texas.  Some light precipitation is possible in San Antonio (but nothing that should wet the ground), but expect most of the rain – albeit light – to remain generally south and west of the city Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday, another cold front will move through the area sending in a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air.  Luckily, this front clears the skies out allowing for a return to sunshine and warmer temperatures.  Expect highs to linker in the low to mid 70s though a majority of next week with plenty of sunshine.  Low temperatures will hover in the 40s.  The next front will move through the area most likely on Friday – with no rain anticipated at this time.

Long range models hold onto idea of bringing in “wet” fronts towards the end of the month.  This is again a long time out, but if you are reading, keep your fingers crossed!  The drought across Texas has expanded dramatically in the past few weeks with over 70% of the state experiencing abnormally dry or worse conditions.  The San Antonio – Austin corridor remains the hardest hit with a chart-topping “Exceptional” drought that has plagued the region since September 2007.  Check our new drought page linked on MyTexasWeather.com for more information.

Exceptionally cold temperatures blanketed South-Central Texas Wednesday morning with a low of 29 reported at the San Antonio International Airport and only 19 at the Austin Bergstrom International Airport. The cold weather was short-lived due to widespread sunshine and dry air,  which allowed for high temperatures to reach 66 in San Antonio and 64 in Austin.

A reinforcing shot of cold air moved through South-Central Texas very early Thursday.  As a result, temperatures will struggle to reach the 60s.  A weak ridge located over the Gulf of Mexico will help usher in moisture in the lower to middle levels of the atmosphere, which will allow for increased cloud cover and moderated temperatures through at least early Saturday. Isolated pockets of light rain and drizzle will be possible in Deep South Texas around Laredo and the rest of the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures on Friday will only reach the lower 50s in San Antonio under overcast skies.

By Sunday, another cold front will move through the region.  This front will push the moisture away and bring a return to sunshine that will continue through most of next week.  At this time, the weather next week looks absolutely fantastic with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s under clear skies.  Rain chances through next week appear nonexistent.

It was another pleasant day across South-Central Texas this afternoon with wall-to-wall sunshine, crisp deep blue skies, and mild temperatures. The San Antonio Airport did remain below average, however, with a high of only 59F.  Sharp radiational cooling will result in a deep freeze tonight, with low temperatures dropping in the low to mid 20s across the lower Escarpment and upper teens in portions of the Hill Country.   The National Weather Service has even issued Freeze Warnings for the Coastal Bend.   As of 11 PM CST, the current temperature in San Antonio was 39F with calm winds and a dew point of 14F (which is a dew point so low that you can bring a can of cold soda outside, and the outer region of the can will remain dry).  Remember to protect your pets, plants, and pipes tonight.

The big story for this update is the removal of rain chances for this weekend.  In earlier blog entries, it seemed increasingly likely that light rain would fall on South-Central Texas.  Today, however, computer models have been shifting most of the isentropic lift further to the south and west along the Texas-Mexico border.   It is still possible that rain falls on San Antonio Thursday through Saturday, but anything that falls will be in the form of light drizzle.  This is unfortunate as the area remains in an exceptional drought.

Temperatures throughout the week have been generally unchanged from previous 8-day forecasts, with the exception of a degree or two shift this weekend based on the drop of rain chances.

Long-range computer models appear to have a poor handle on the future weather pattern for this area.  Therefore, it is hard to determine when will be our next chance for rain.

Beautiful cool day across South-Central Texas this afternoon.  The San Antonio International Airport reported clear skies throughout the afternoon with a high temperature of 65F.  Cold air advection combined with some radiational cooling will allow temperatures drop in the low to mid 30s in San Antonio with freezes possible north and west of town.

Another reinforcing cold front, dry in nature, is moving through South-Central Texas tonight.  As of 10:30, the front was located just and east of the US-90 and I-35 corridor.  This will usher wind breezy northerly winds of 25 to 30 mph along with drier air on Tuesday.  Therefore, there is an increased risk for brush fires tomorrow afternoon.  Tuesday night will be generally clear, and cold with lows in the mid 30s.  Expect clear skies to continue through Wednesday.

By Thursday, models show winds shifting towards the southeast allowing for moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to stream into South-Central Texas.   This moisture will interact with a weak disturbance allowing for a chance of scattered showers, light in nature, Friday through Sunday.  Expected rainfall totals at this time appear to be generally less than a quarter inch in areas that do receive rain.  Expect cold conditions Friday with highs struggling to reach 50, however lows will remain in the 40s.

Expect a return to the 60s for highs by Sunday with most of the moisture washed out of the region by the end of the weekend and early next week. Long range models indicate a possibility for more showers late next week.

Nice brisk afternoon across South-Central Texas today as most of the cloud-cover has shifted eastward.  Temperatures were slightly warmer than yesterday due to the added sunshine and drier air resulting in a high of 65F at the San Antonio International Airport.  However, the clear skies and low humidity will also help generate a significant drop in temperatures overnight.  Therefore, a freeze is possible across most parts of the region tonight, with the exception of areas closer to the Gulf Coast.  Tomorrow will be another generally clear day with highs in the mid 60s.

High temperatures should remain in the low to mid 60s through at least Wednesday as dry air remains over South-Central Texas.  By Thursday, however, a surface high will position itself over the Gulf of Mexico allowing for southeasterly flow at the surface.  Thus, the atmosphere will become increasingly moist and will allow the possibility for much needed rain into the weekend.   Temperatures later this week and into the weekend will drop into the 50s to low 60s for highs and lows in the 40s.

Analyzing the computer models this evening, it appears that the general forecast for the following week is on track.  The main adjustments to the 8-day forecast for the next update will be lowering the overnight lows the next couple of nights as a freeze tonight is almost a certainty, and raising the rain chances on Saturday as a cold front will move through the region.

Welcome to the new blog… this is the first official weather post since the MTW re-launch.

Cold air has settled in across South-Central Texas after a potent front moved through early this morning.  Temperatures across the region have generally stayed in the 50s under mostly cloudy to overcast skies throughout the day.  The high temperature at the San Antonio International Airport was 60.

According to the 12Z MOS suite, skies should begin to clear tomorrow allowing for slightly warmer temperatures allowing highs to reach the mid to upper 60s. However, clearing skies will allow for enhanced radiational cooling with overnight lows bottoming out in the low-to-mid 30s. Precipitation chances remain close to nil, however a scattered sprinkle or two is possible before the clouds breakup.

The last model trends from the 00Z and 12Z suites are showing a drying trend, therefore I will remove rain chances for the next update of the San Antonio 8-Day forecast through at least Friday.  There is still some hope for an overrunning event late next weekend and into the following week as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves into the region.  The cold and moisture combined will be monitored closely for the outside possibility of frozen precipitation being mixed in, especially in the northern Hill Country.  At this time, however, all precipitation (if any) looks to remain all liquid (albeit cold).

High temperatures throughout the week will generally remain 60s for the first half of the week and in the 50s towards the second half.  Lows across south-central Texas will remain in the 30s and 40s, though no freezes are expected through next week at this time.

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